E-Newsletter

As the new year begins, there are no shortage of stories telling us what to expect in 2012. Housing finished 2011 with momentum and mortgage rates closed at the lowest rates of all time. Some expect those trends to continue through the first quarter and beyond. Others expect a rapid reversal. Who’s right and who’s wrong? A quick look through the newspapers, websites and business television programs reveals “experts” with opposing, well-delivered arguments views. It’s tough to know who to believe. For example, here are some “on-the-record” predictions for 2012:

• Home prices will rise in 2012 (says Freddie Mac)
• Home prices will fall in 2012 (says CBS News)
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2012 (says American Banker)
• Mortgage rates will fall in 2012 (says the LA Times)

The issue for buyers, seller, and would-be refinancers in Orange County and nationwide is that it can be a challenge to separate a “prediction” from fact at times. When an argument is made on the pages of a respected newspaper or website, or is presented on CNBC or Bloomberg by a well-dressed, well-spoken industry insider, we’re inclined to believe what we read and hear. This is human nature.

The drop in REO is coming at a tough time for today’s Orange County home buyers. Distressed properties are in high demand ­ mostly because they sell at steep discounts. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, distressed homes accounted for 28 percent of all home sales in October. As fewer bank-owned homes become available, though, there will be fewer “deals” to be had. Especially as the broader housing market continues to signal its recovery.

However, we must force ourselves to remember that any analysis about the future — whether it’s housing-related, mortgage-related, or something else — are based on a combination of past events and personal opinion. Predictions are guesses about what might come next — nothing more.

For example, at the start of 2009, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 6 percent, but it did. Then, at the start of 2010, few people expected the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to stay below 5 percent, but it did. All we can know for certain about today’s market is that both mortgage rates and home values are low, creating favorable home-buying conditions in and around Southern California and nationwide. At that start of last year, few people expected mortgage rates to even reach 4 percent. Today, rates “with points” price in the 3s. What 2012 has in store we just can’t know.

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